# Wrapping a custom model into a sklearn estimator

## February 02, 2020

Following the study about time series done in a previous post, I want to show you a possible solution to bring a hand-made model (with scipy) to production.

The solution I will detail here is based on the sklearn API, that enable to build custom estimators (documentation). The main idea is to create a new class inheriting from BaseEstimator and implementing the fit and predict methods.

## Overall structure

The structure of our new estimator is the following:

from sklearn.base import BaseEstimator
from sklearn.base import RegressorMixin

class TSEstimatory(BaseEstimator, RegressorMixin):

def __init__(self, **model_hyper_parameters):
"""
"""
super().__init__()

def fit(self, X, Y=None):
"""
Fit global model on X features to minimize
a given function on Y.

@param X
@param Y
"""
# TODO
return self

def predict(self, X):
"""
@param X: features vector the model will be evaluated on
"""
# TODO
return None


Once fully implemented, we will be able to use it in this way:

model = TSEstimator()
model.fil(x_train, y_train)
y_pred = model.predict(x_test)


We will even be able to use this model within all sklearn tools such as Pipeline if some data transformation is needed, or GridSearchCV to find optimum hyper paramters. It is also very convenient to store some helper functions. For instance, I tend to add a plot method to my custom estimators, which makes easier to visualize the results of the training/eesting phases.

## Implementing the fit method

The fit method will run the scipy optimizer. We first have to write the function to be minimized. For this, I am just going to copy the code from the previous post on the topic (link in the intro). We first import the necessary packages, define some constants and create some helper functions:

import numpy as np
from scipy import optimize
from sklearn.base import BaseEstimator
from sklearn.base import RegressorMixin

PURCHASSED_PRICE = 1.5
FRESH_PRICE = 2.5
FROZEN_PRICE = 0.8

def fresh_price(volume):
return volume * FRESH_PRICE

def frozen_price(volume):
return volume * FROZEN_PRICE

def fourier_series(t, p=365.25, n=10):
"""
:pram t: times
:pram p: seasonality period. p=365.25 for yearly, p=7 for weekly seaonality
:param n: number of terms in the fourrier serie
"""
x = 2 * np.pi * np.arange(1, n + 1) / p
x = x * t[:, None]
x = np.concatenate((np.cos(x), np.sin(x)), axis=1)
return x


Now we can enter into the interesting part. The content of the function is almost exactly the code of the previous post, except that now the penalty and the number of seasonal components are no more constant parameters but instance members:

class TSEstimatory(BaseEstimator, RegressorMixin):

def __init__(self, n_seasonal_components=6, **model_hyper_parameters):
"""
"""
super().__init__()
self.n_seasonal_components = n_seasonal_components
# fitted parameters, initialized to None
self.params_ = None

# 1. Building the model
@property
def penalty(self):
return 0

def _seasonality_model(self, t, params):
x = fourier_series(t, 52, self.n_seasonal_components)
return x @ params

def _model(self, t, params):
trend = params[0] * t + params[1]
seasonality = self._seasonality_model(t, params[2:self.n_seasonal_components*2+2])
return trend + seasonality

# 2. Define the loss function
def _loss(self, y_obs, y_pred):
"""Compute the dealer gain

:param np.array y_obs: real sales
:param np.array y_pred: predicted sales = purchasses
"""
expenses = y_pred * PURCHASSED_PRICE
return np.where(
y_obs >= y_pred,
# if real sales are above the predicted ones
# the only gain is the stock price, so y_pred
expenses + self.penalty - fresh_price(y_pred),
# if real sales are below the predicted ones
# we earn the fresh price for the sales of the day + frozen price of the leftover
expenses - (fresh_price(y_obs) + frozen_price(y_pred - y_obs))
).sum()

# 3. Function to be minimized
def _f(self, params, *args):
"""Function to minimize = losses for the dealer

:param args: must contains in that order:
- data to be fitted (pd.Series)
- model (function)
"""
data = self._train_data
t = data.t
y_obs = self._train_target
y_pred = self._model(t, params)
l = self._loss(y_pred, y_obs)
return l

def fit(self, X, Y):
"""
Fit global model on X features to minimize
a given function on Y.

@param X: train dataset (features, N-dim)
@param Y: train dataset (target, 1-dim)
"""
self._train_data = X
self._train_target = Y
param_initial_values = [-0.001, 1.3] + [0.1, 0.1] * self.n_seasonal_components
res = optimize.minimize(
self._f,
x0=param_initial_values,
tol=100,
)
if res.success:
self.params_ = res.x
return self


This model can be use in the following way:

e = TSEstimatory()
e.fit(data, data.y)


## Implementing the predict method

Since we saved the fitted paramters into self.params_, the predict method is quite simple:

    def predict(self, X):
return self._model(X, self.params_)


Example usage

e.predict(data.t.iloc[-10:])


## Final word

As already said, the advantage is that now, our model can be used in conjunction with any other sklearn tools: pipelines, grid search to optimize the hyper parameters (n_seasonal_components)… This includes the model persistence tools! Meaning we can dump a fitted TSEstimator:

from joblib import dump
e = TSEstimatory()
e.fit(data, data.y)
dump(e, "tsestimator.joblib", compress=0)


This dumped file can be read again, for instance in a production environemnt:

from joblib import dump, load